{"id":1024,"date":"2026-11-02T17:47:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T08:47:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kr.bis-expert.com\/?p=1024"},"modified":"2026-11-02T17:55:11","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T08:55:11","slug":"%eb%8f%84%eb%b0%95%ec%82%ac%ec%9d%98-%ec%98%a4%eb%a5%98%eb%8a%94-%ec%99%9c-%eb%b0%98%eb%b3%b5%eb%90%a0%ea%b9%8c-%ed%99%95%eb%a5%a0-%ec%95%9e%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%eb%ac%b4%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80%eb%8a%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kr.bis-expert.com\/?p=1024","title":{"rendered":"\ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub294 \uc65c \ubc18\ubcf5\ub420\uae4c? \ud655\ub960 \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\ub294 \uc778\uac04\uc758 \uc2ec\ub9ac"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\ube68\uac04\uc0c9\uc774 \uc5f4 \ubc88 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9ce\uc740 \uc0ac\ub78c\uc774 \ubc14\ub85c \uadf8 \uc21c\uac04 ‘\uc774\uc81c\ub294 \uac80\uc740\uc0c9\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \ucc28\ub840’\ub77c\uace0 \ud655\uc2e0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub8f0\ub81b \ud720\ub3c4, \uce74\ub4dc \ud55c \ubc8c\ub3c4, \ub3d9\uc804\ub3c4 \ubc29\uae08 \uc804\uc5d0 \ubb34\uc2a8 \uc77c\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0 \uc804\ud600 \uae30\uc5b5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc804\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ucc98\uc74c\uacfc \ub611\uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub807\uac8c \uc11c\ub85c \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc77c\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \uc5b5\uc9c0\ub85c ‘\ud750\ub984’\uacfc ‘\uc21c\uc11c’\ub97c \ubd80\uc5ec\ud558\ub294 \ucc29\uac01\uc744 \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958(Gambler’s Fallacy)\ub77c\uace0 \ubd80\ub985\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud765\ubbf8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc810\uc740 \uc774 \uc624\ub958\uac00 \uce74\uc9c0\ub178 \ud14c\uc774\ube14\uc5d0\ub9cc \uba38\ubb3c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ucd9c \uc2ec\uc0ac\uc5ed, \ud310\uc0ac, \uc57c\uad6c \uc2ec\ud310, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc758 \uba38\ub9bf\uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub611\uac19\uc740 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\ub3d9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc740 \ud655\ub960 \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc778\uac04\uc758 \uc9c1\uad00\uc774 \uc65c \ubc18\ubcf5\ud574\uc11c \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\ub294\uc9c0, \uadf8 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \ucc28\uadfc\ucc28\uadfc \ub4e4\uc5ec\ub2e4\ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub780 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc778\uac00<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub294 \uc11c\ub85c \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c\ucabd \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubc88 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \ubc18\ub300 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 ‘\ub098\uc62c \ub54c\uac00 \ub410\ub2e4’\uace0 \ubbff\ub294 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \ucc29\uac01\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc804\uc744 \ub358\uc838 \uc55e\uba74\uc774 \uc138 \ubc88 \uc5f0\uc18d \ub098\uc654\ub2e4\uace0 \ud574\uc11c, \ub124 \ubc88\uc9f8\uc5d0 \ub4b7\uba74\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \ud655\ub960\uc774 50%\ub97c \ub118\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc804\uc5d0\ub294 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\ub824\ub294 \uc758\uc9c0\uac00 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc9c1\uad00\uc740 ‘\uc55e\uba74\uc774 \ub108\ubb34 \ub9ce\uc774 \ub098\uc654\uc73c\ub2c8 \uc774\uc81c \ub4b7\uba74\uc774 \ub098\uc640\uc57c \uacf5\ud3c9\ud558\ub2e4’\uace0 \uc18d\uc0ad\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc624\ub958\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc815\ub9ac<\/a>\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc9c0\uc801\ud558\ub4ef, \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 ‘\uacf5\uc815\ud568’\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac10\uac01\uc744 \uc9e7\uc740 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubb34\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud575\uc2ec \ub2e8\uc5b4\ub294 ‘\ub3c5\ub9bd \uc2dc\ud589’\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac01 \uc2dc\ud589\uc758 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \uc774\uc804 \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \uc804\ud600 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \uacfc\uac70\uac00 \uc544\ubb34\ub9ac \ud55c\ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uce58\uc6b0\uccd0\ub3c4 \ub2e4\uc74c \uacb0\uacfc\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ubcc0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud655\ub960\uc758 \uade0\ud615\uc740 \uc218\ubc31, \uc218\ucc9c \ubc88\uc758 \uae34 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uc11c\uc11c\ud788 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub0a0 \ubfd0, \ub2f9\uc7a5 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud55c \ubc88\uc744 ‘\uad50\uc815’\ud558\ub294 \ud798\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1913\ub144 \ubaac\ud14c\uce74\ub97c\ub85c\uc758 \ubc24<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uac00\uc7a5 \uc720\uba85\ud55c \uc0ac\ub840\ub294 1913\ub144 8\uc6d4 \ubaa8\ub098\ucf54\uc758 \ubaac\ud14c\uce74\ub97c\ub85c \uce74\uc9c0\ub178\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud55c \ub8f0\ub81b \ud14c\uc774\ube14\uc5d0\uc11c \uacf5\uc774 \ubb34\ub824 26\ubc88 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \uac80\uc740\uc0c9\uc5d0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud68c\uc804\uc774 \uac70\ub4ed\ub420\uc218\ub85d \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 ‘\uc774\uc81c\ub294 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \ube68\uac04\uc0c9’\uc774\ub77c\uba70 \uc810\uc810 \ub354 \ud070 \ub3c8\uc744 \ube68\uac04\uc0c9\uc5d0 \uac78\uc5c8\uace0, \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\ubc31\ub9cc \ud504\ub791\uc744 \uc783\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 26\uc5f0\uc18d \uac80\uc740\uc0c9\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74 \uc790\uccb4\ub294 \ud76c\uadc0\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc2a4\ubb34 \ubc88 \ub118\uac8c \uac80\uc740\uc0c9\uc774 \ub098\uc628 \ub4a4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud55c \ubc88\uc774 \uac80\uc740\uc0c9\uc77c \ud655\ub960\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc808\ubc18\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6e0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc740 \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \ubc14\uafb8\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub3c5\ub9bd \uc2dc\ud589\uacfc \ud655\ub960<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uc5ec\uae30\uc11c \ud63c\ub3d9\ud558\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uac1c\ub150\uc774 ‘\ub300\uc218\uc758 \ubc95\uce59’\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\ud589 \ud69f\uc218\uac00 \ubb34\ud55c\ud788 \ub9ce\uc544\uc9c0\uba74 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc774\ub860\uc801 \ud655\ub960\uc5d0 \uc218\ub834\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\uac83\uc740 ‘\uae34 \uad6c\uac04 \uc804\uccb4’\uc758 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\uc774\uc9c0, ‘\ubc14\ub85c \ub2e4\uc74c \ud55c \ubc88’\uc744 \ubcf4\uc815\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc218\ub834\uc744 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc870\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \ucc29\uac01\ud558\ub294 \ub370\uc11c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud655\ub960\uc740 \uacfc\uac70\ub97c \uccad\uc0b0\ud574 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \ud68c\uacc4\uc0ac\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \ub9e4 \uc21c\uac04 \ubc31\uc9c0\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc8fc\uc0ac\uc704\ub97c \uad74\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2ec\ud310\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub1cc\ub294 \uc65c \uc5c6\ub294 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4\ub0bc\uae4c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\uc778\uac04\uc758 \ub1cc\ub294 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ucc3e\ub3c4\ub85d \uc9c4\ud654\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc218\ud480\uc758 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc\uc5d0\uc11c \ud3ec\uc2dd\uc790\ub97c \uc77d\uc5b4\ub0b4\uace0, \uc18c\ub9ac\uc758 \ubc18\ubcf5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ud3ec\ucc29\ud558\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc740 \uc0dd\uc874\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc774 \ub2a5\ub825\uc774 ‘\uc9c4\uc9dc \ubb34\uc791\uc704’ \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uacfc\uc789 \uc791\ub3d9\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc544\ubb34 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc7a1\uc74c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub1cc\ub294 \uaddc\uce59\uc744 \ubc1c\uacac\ud558\ub824 \ub4ed\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uad70\uc9d1 \ucc29\uac01(clustering illusion)\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

‘\uadf8\ub7f4\ub4ef\ud55c \ubb34\uc791\uc704’\uc758 \ud568\uc815<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \ubb34\uc791\uc704\ub97c ‘\uace0\ub974\uac8c \uc11e\uc778 \uac83’\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ub300\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc804 \uc5ec\uc12f \ubc88 \ub358\uc9c0\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c ‘\uc55e-\ub4a4-\uc55e-\ub4a4-\uc55e-\ub4a4’\ub294 \ubb34\uc791\uc704\ucc98\ub7fc \ub290\uaef4\uc9c0\uc9c0\ub9cc ‘\uc55e-\uc55e-\uc55e-\ub4a4-\ub4a4-\ub4a4’\ub294 \uc870\uc791\ub41c \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc \ub290\uaef4\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub450 \ubc30\uc5f4\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \ud655\ub960\uc740 \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 ‘\ubb34\uc791\uc704\uac19\ub2e4’\uace0 \ub290\ub07c\ub294 \ubc30\uc5f4\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4 \ud2b9\uc815\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uace0, \uc9c4\uc9dc \ubb34\uc791\uc704\uc5d0\ub294 \uae38\uace0 \uce58\uc6b0\uce5c \uc5f0\uc18d\uc774 \uc758\uc678\ub85c \uc790\uc8fc \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a9\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uc5d0\ub294 \uac70\uc6b8\uc0c1\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc14\ub85c ‘\ub728\uac70\uc6b4 \uc190 \uc624\ub958(hot-hand fallacy)’\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uac00 ‘\uc5f0\uc18d\uc774 \ub05d\ub0a0 \ub54c\uac00 \ub410\ub2e4’\uace0 \ubbff\ub294\ub2e4\uba74, \ub728\uac70\uc6b4 \uc190 \uc624\ub958\ub294 ‘\uc5f0\uc18d\uc774\ub2c8 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420 \uac83’\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubbff\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc29\ud5a5\uc740 \uc815\ubc18\ub300\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubfcc\ub9ac\ub294 \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4 \u2014 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc77d\uc5b4\ub0bc\ub824 \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ubc14\uce74\ub77c \uadf8\ub9bc: \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc798 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uacf3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\uc774 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc120\uba85\ud558\uac8c \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub098\ub294 \uce74\uc9c0\ub178 \uac8c\uc784\uc740 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac70\uc758 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c \ud14c\uc774\ube14\uc5d0\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud558\ub294 \uc804\uad11\ud310, \uc774\ub978\ubc14 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c \uadf8\ub9bc(\ub85c\ub4dc\ub9f5)\uc774 \uac78\ub824 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud070\uae38(\ub300\ub85c), \uad6c\uc2ac\ud310, \ud070\ub208\uae38, \uc791\uc740\uae38, \ubc14\ud034\ubc8c\ub808\uae38 \uac19\uc740 \uc774\ub984\uc758 \ud45c\ub4e4\uc774 \ubc45\ucee4\uc640 \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\uc758 \uc2b9\ud328 \uc774\ub825\uc744 \uc0c9\uacfc \ubaa8\uc591\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9ce\uc740 \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\uac00 \uc774 \uadf8\ub9bc\uc744 ‘\uc77d\uc5b4’ \ub2e4\uc74c \ud310\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. ‘\ubc45\ucee4\uac00 \ub2e4\uc12f \ubc88 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\uc73c\ub2c8 \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\ub85c \ub04a\uae38 \ub54c\ub2e4’\ub77c\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774 \ubc14\ub85c \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uc758 \uad50\uacfc\uc11c\uc801 \uc0ac\ub840\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9bc\uc740 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uae30\ub85d\uc77c \ubfd0, \ub2e4\uc74c \ud328\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ubc14\uce74\ub77c \ud655\ub960, \uc22b\uc790\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uac10\uc815 \ub300\uc2e0 \uc22b\uc790\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74 \uadf8\ub9bc\uc774 \ubb34\ub825\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774 \ubd84\uba85\ud574\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud45c\uc900 8\ub371 \uac8c\uc784 \uae30\uc900 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uacb0\uacfc<\/th>\uc2b9\ub960 (8\ub371 \uae30\uc900)<\/th>\ud558\uc6b0\uc2a4 \uc5e3\uc9c0<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
\ubc45\ucee4<\/td>\uc57d 45.86%<\/td>1.06%<\/td><\/tr>
\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4<\/td>\uc57d 44.62%<\/td>1.24%<\/td><\/tr>
\ud0c0\uc774<\/td>\uc57d 9.52%<\/td>14.36%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\ud0c0\uc774(\ubb34\uc2b9\ubd80)\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud558\uace0 \uc2b9\ubd80\uac00 \ub09c \ud310\ub9cc \ub530\uc9c0\uba74 \ubc45\ucee4\uac00 \uc57d 50.7%, \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\uac00 \uc57d 49.3%\ub85c \ubc45\ucee4\uac00 \uc544\uc8fc \uc57d\uac04 \uc720\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc45\ucee4\uac00 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uaddc\uce59\uc0c1 \ubc45\ucee4\uac00 \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\uc758 \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uce74\ub4dc\ub97c \ubcf8 \ub4a4\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \uce74\ub4dc\ub97c \ubc1b\uc744\uc9c0 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 ‘\ud6c4\ud589 \uc815\ubcf4’\uc758 \uc774\uc810 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ubc45\ucee4 \uc2b9\ub9ac\uc5d0\ub294 \ubcf4\ud1b5 5% \ucee4\ubbf8\uc158\uc774 \ubd99\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \ud558\uc6b0\uc2a4 \uc5e3\uc9c0\ub294 \ubc45\ucee4 1.06%, \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4 1.24%\ub85c \ubc45\ucee4 \ucabd\uc774 \uc870\uae08 \ub0ae\uace0, \ud0c0\uc774\ub294 14.36%\ub85c \uc555\ub3c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd88\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud55c \uc790\ub8cc<\/a>\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\uc778\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc218\ud559\uc801 \uc0c1\uc218\uc774\uba70, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uadf8\ub9bc\uc774\ub098 \ud328\ud134, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubca0\ud305 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\ub3c4 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub97c \ubc14\uafb8\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. ‘\ud544\uc2b9\ubc95’\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub9d0\uc774 \ub4f1\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \uc21c\uac04 \uadf8\uac83\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud2c0\ub9b0 \uba85\uc81c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ucabc\uae30, \uc2a4\ud53c\ub4dc, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 ‘\uadf8\ub9bc’\uc744 \uc790\uadf9\ud558\ub294 \uc7a5\uce58\ub4e4<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uc628\ub77c\uc778\uacfc \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \ubc14\uce74\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354\uc6b1 \uc790\uadf9\ud558\ub294 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc5f0\ucd9c\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub51c\ub7ec\uac00 \uce74\ub4dc\ub97c \ucc9c\ucc9c\ud788 \uad6c\ubd80\ub824 \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\ub294 \ucabc\uae30(Squeeze)\ub294 \uae34\uc7a5\uac10\uc744 \ub192\uc774\ub294 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\ubc18\uba74 \ud53d \ubc14\uce74\ub77c(Peek Baccarat)\ub294 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc2a4\ud034\uc988 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c\uc640 \uad6c\uc870\uac00 \ub2e4\ub985\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\ub098 \ubc45\ucee4\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \ub54c 20%\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc218\uc218\ub8cc\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba70, \ub51c\ub7ec\uac00 \uba3c\uc800 \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\ub294 1~4\uc7a5\uc758 \uce74\ub4dc\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud55c \ub4a4 \uae30\uc874 \ubca0\ud305 \uae08\uc561\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac70\ub098 2\ubc30 \ub610\ub294 3\ubc30\ub85c \ub298\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\ube60\ub978 \uc9c4\ud589\uc774 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc778 \ucf54\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2a4\ud53c\ub4dc \ubc14\uce74\ub77c, \ubb34\uc791\uc704 \ubc30\ub2f9 \ubc30\uc218\uac00 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \ub77c\uc774\ud2b8\ub2dd \ubc14\uce74\ub77c, \uc5ec\ub7ec \ud14c\uc774\ube14\uc744 \uc120\ud0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c \ub85c\ube44 \ub4f1 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ud615\ud0dc\uac00 \uc874\uc7ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uac8c\uc784 \uc720\ud615\uc740 \uc628\ub77c\uc778\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\uacf5\ub418\ub294 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c \uac8c\uc784 \ubaa8\uc74c<\/a>\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcfc \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\ub2e4\ub9cc \uce74\ub4dc \uacf5\uac1c \uc5f0\ucd9c\uc774\ub098 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc18d\ub3c4 \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \uc2b9\ub9ac \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ub192\uc774\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uac8c\uc784 \uc885\ub958\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc218\uc218\ub8cc, \ubc30\ub2f9 \uad6c\uc870, \ud658\uc218\uc728(RTP)\uc774 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ubc14\uce74\ub77c\uc758 \uc218\uc775 \uad6c\uc870\uac00 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218\ub294 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uce74\uc9c0\ub178 \ubc16\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ub294 \uc624\ub958<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uac00 \ubb34\uc11c\uc6b4 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ud14c\uc774\ube14 \ubc16\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc0ac\ub78c\uc758 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \uc870\uc6a9\ud788 \uc65c\uace1\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \uccb8(Chen), \ubaa8\uc2a4\ucf54\uc704\uce20(Moskowitz), \uc288(Shue)\ub294 \ub300\ucd9c \uc2ec\uc0ac\uc5ed, \ub9dd\uba85 \uc2ec\uc0ac \ud310\uc0ac, \uc57c\uad6c \uc2ec\ud310\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \uacb0\uc815 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc804\ubb38 \uc9c1\uad70\uc5d0\uc11c \uac19\uc740 \ud3b8\ud5a5<\/a>\uc774 \ubc1c\uacac\ub410\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ucd9c \uc2ec\uc0ac\uc5ed\uc740 \uc9c1\uc804 \uac74\uc744 \uc2b9\uc778\ud55c \uc9c1\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \uac74\uc744 \uc2b9\uc778\ud560 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc57d 8%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9dd\uba85 \uc2ec\uc0ac \ud310\uc0ac\ub294 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \uc2b9\uc778\ud55c \ub4a4 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc2e0\uccad\uc744 \uac70\uc808\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\uace0, \uc57c\uad6c \uc2ec\ud310\uc740 \uc9c1\uc804\uc5d0 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub77c\uc774\ud06c\ub97c \uc120\uc5b8\ud55c \ub4a4 \ub2e4\uc74c \uacf5\uc744 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub77c\uc774\ud06c\ub85c \ud310\uc815\ud560 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989 ‘\ubc29\uae08 \uc804\uc5d0 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub838\uc73c\ub2c8 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d4 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uac00\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4’\ub294 \ubb34\uc758\uc2dd\uc801 ‘\uade0\ud615 \ub9de\ucd94\uae30’\uac00 \uacf5\uc815\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uac70\uafb8\ub85c \ubd88\uacf5\uc815\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud22c\uc790\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774 \uc624\ub958\uc758 \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc608\uc2dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. ‘\uc0ac\ud758 \uc62c\ub790\uc73c\ub2c8 \uc774\uc81c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \ucc28\ub840’\ub77c\uac70\ub098 ‘\ub2f7\uc0c8\ub3d9\uc548 \ube60\uc84c\uc73c\ub2c8 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud560 \ub54c’\ub77c\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc740 \uc804\ud615\uc801\uc778 \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubb3c\ub860 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0 \ud68c\uadc0(mean reversion)\ucc98\ub7fc \uc2e4\uc81c \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadf8\uac83\uc740 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uacfc \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub420 \ub54c\uc758 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc601\ud654 ‘\ube45\uc1fc\ud2b8’\ub85c \uc720\uba85\ud55c \ub9c8\uc774\ud074 \ubc84\ub9ac\uc758 \uc5ed\ubc1c\uc0c1 \ud22c\uc790<\/a>\uac00 \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uc640 \uacb0\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \uc810\uc774 \ubc14\ub85c \uc5ec\uae30\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 ‘\ub290\ub08c\uc0c1 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \ub54c’\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc9c1\uc811 \ub6af\uc5b4\ubcf8 \uadfc\uac70 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uad70\uc911\uacfc \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ubca0\ud305\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ed\ubc1c\uc0c1\ucc98\ub7fc \ubcf4\uc5ec\ub3c4 \uadf8 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc740 \uc9c1\uac10\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc22b\uc790\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud655\ub960 \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc870\uae08 \ub354 \ud604\uba85\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \ubc95<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\ud655\ub960<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub97c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc5c6\uc568 \uc218\ub294 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ub1cc\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc124\uc815\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uadf8\uac83\uc774 \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uc21c\uac04\uc744 \uc54c\uc544\ucc28\ub9ac\uba74 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131\ubd80\ud130 \ubb3b\uae30: \uc9c0\uae08 \uc774 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774 \uacfc\uac70\uc640 \uc815\ub9d0 \uc5f0\uacb0\ub3fc \uc788\ub294\uc9c0, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \ub9e4\ubc88 \ubc31\uc9c0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \uba3c\uc800 \uad6c\ubd84\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • \uc9c1\uad00 \ub300\uc2e0 \ub370\uc774\ud130: ‘\ub290\ub08c’\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc22b\uc790\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \ud6c8\ub828\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4\ub9c9\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ub2e4\ub8e8\ub294 \uc5ed\ub7c9\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d \uc790\uaca9\uc99d \uac19\uc740 \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \ud559\uc2b5\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uae30\ub974\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • \uac00\uc815 \ub300\uc2e0 \uadfc\uac70: \ub300\uc0c1\uc744 ‘\uadf8\ub7f4 \uac83 \uac19\ub2e4’\ub85c \uaddc\uc815\ud558\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0 \uc2e4\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c \uc815\uc758\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9c8\ucf00\ud305\uc5d0\uc11c \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uae30\ubc18 \ud398\ub974\uc18c\ub098\ub97c \uc138\uc6b0\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc88b\uc740 \uc608\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \uba3c\uc800 \uc815\ud558\uae30: \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud65c\ub3d9\uc774\ub4e0 \uc4f8 \ub3c8\uacfc \uc2dc\uac04\uc758 \uc0c1\ud55c\uc120\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc815\ud574\ub461\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • ‘\ub098\uc62c \ub54c\uac00 \ub410\ub2e4’\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638 \uacbd\uacc4\ud558\uae30: \uc774 \ub290\ub08c\uc774 \ub4dc\ub294 \uc21c\uac04\uc774\uc57c\ub9d0\ub85c \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\uac00 \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \ubd84\uba85\ud55c \uacbd\uace0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    \ucc45\uc784\uac10 \uc788\ub294 \ud0dc\ub3c4\uac00 \uba3c\uc800\ub2e4<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \ubc14\uce74\ub77c\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uce74\uc9c0\ub178 \uac8c\uc784\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uc6b0\uc2a4\uac00 \uc218\ud559\uc801 \uc6b0\uc704\ub97c \uac16\ub3c4\ub85d \uc124\uacc4\ub3fc \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc740 \ud655\ub960\uacfc \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud560 \ubfd0, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac8c\uc784\uc774\ub098 \ubca0\ud305\uc744 \uad8c\uc720\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac8c\uc784\uc744 \uc990\uae30\uc2e0\ub2e4\uba74 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \uc783\uc5b4\ub3c4 \uad1c\ucc2e\uc740 \ub3c8\uc73c\ub85c, \uc624\ub77d\uc758 \ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c, \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \uc9c0\ud0a4\uc154\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c \uc870\uc808\uc774 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \ub290\uaef4\uc9c0\uc2e0\ub2e4\uba74 \ud55c\uad6d\ub3c4\ubc15\ubb38\uc81c\uc608\ubc29\uce58\uc720\uc6d0\uc758 \ud5ec\ud504\ub77c\uc778 1336<\/strong>(\ubb34\ub8cc, 24\uc2dc\uac04 \uc0c1\ub2f4)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \ubc1b\uc73c\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc774\uae38 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \uc77c\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uc65c \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c8 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \uc815\uc9c1\ud558\uac8c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc774\ub294 \uc77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \ub9c8\uce58\uba70<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    \uacb0\uad6d \ub3c4\ubc15\uc0ac\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub294 \uce74\uc9c0\ub178\ub9cc\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc778\uac04\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc14\uce74\ub77c \uadf8\ub9bc \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c\ub4e0, \uc8fc\uc2dd \ucc28\ud2b8 \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c\ub4e0, \uc0ac\ubb34\uc2e4\uc758 \uacb0\uc7ac \uc11c\ub958 \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c\ub4e0 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \ub1cc\ub294 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc77d\uc5b4\ub0b4\ub824\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucc29\uac01\uc744 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc9c0\uc6b8 \uc218\ub294 \uc5c6\uc9c0\ub9cc, ‘\uc774\uc81c \ubc14\ub014 \ucc28\ub840’\ub77c\ub294 \ub290\ub08c\uc774 \ub4e4 \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ud55c \uac78\uc74c \ubb3c\ub7ec\uc11c\uc11c ‘\uc774 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774 \uc815\ub9d0 \uacfc\uac70\uc640 \uc5f0\uacb0\ub3fc \uc788\ub294\uac00’\ub97c \ub418\ubb3b\ub294 \uc2b5\uad00\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc2e4\uc218\ub97c \ub9c9\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \uc77c\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ucda9\ub3d9\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2a4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uadf8 \ucc28\ubd84\ud568\uc774\uc57c\ub9d0\ub85c \ud14c\uc774\ube14 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c\ub4e0 \ubc16\uc5d0\uc11c\ub4e0 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac12\uc9c4 \uc790\uc0b0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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